Archive for October, 2008

Chinese output face slowdown

Today the biggest city in economy area–ShangHai, be reported the foreign trade slowdown 3.6 percentage points from a year ago.The newest number of outport expanded is 23%,But as we all know,Chinese YUAN is depreciated with US.Dollar and Chinese YUAN is depreciated face internal price system.So actually,the number of slowdown is not only 3.6%.
Yesterday I had reportedTrade volume down 5% at Yiwu int’l commodities fair,I think goverment need do more things to support expert department,and the goverment need change the way of economy,help little company and let people have more free in economy area.A China’s banking sector seems not been beat by sub-loan crisis,I had heard many words like that,and I even heard somebody said people is error,they must believe the high price of real estate is good!I think this is not the time to say “I am so strang”,It is time to face people’s request and voice,these words is no useful for help China solved crisis in the future.

Global financial crisis and china

Today,a famous banker said:”China’s economy is robust enough and has enough capacity to cope with the world financial crisis“.

Acctually,I do not think so.As we all know that More then 60% of GDP is based on output and foreign trade,and we all know many USA and eruo country drop down in global financial crisis,I had heard many company said their order from USA and Europe slide and slide and slide down.Many chinese manger ask to each other:”Does these foreign people not need Christmas?”

So,let us face the crisis and try our best to solved this problem!

Trade volume down 5% at Yiwu int’l commodities fair

Trade volume at the Yiwu International Commodities Fair dropped by 4.9 percent than last year. The total trade volume reach 10.4 billion yuan , The foreign trade volume dropped by 3.2 percent to reach 949 million U.S. dollars.
The current global financial crisis caused the credit market crisis, the United States and Europeean consumers spending power and desire dropped, in order to respond to these market shrinks.
When some foreigners who lived in China were interviewd,they said they have to change the lifestyle in the past, as far as possible to buy some of the necessities of life, reduce unnecessary spending.

China,coal output slide down

With the financial crisis and the price of Oil dive over,Chinese coal output contine slow on.The raw coal ‘s output is only 2,290,000,000 Tonnes now,and because many chinese company is closed,the request from china is slide down too,This year’s GDP of China maybe just 9.9 point,so china coal industry will face a persistent crisis.

Ofcause,this is a good news for electric power insdustry,this year many electirc power said their cost of coal is too high,so China had improve the price of electric power,but this make manufacturing industry’s cost face crisis.Many manufacturing industry’s output is slide down again.

So,the price of coal slide down is a good news for chinese economy.

Chinese stock market,dive over again

One hour before,chinese stock market dive over again, SHANGHAI share index plunged 6.32 percent on Monday,I had report dive over in last thursday,since that day china goverment had take action to suppoer the weak market,for example reduce the tax of stock market,and I know some trader told metheir manger said only can buy shares now,do’t sale out.But shares dive over again.
Investor heard many news from economic slowdown,we know foreign trade is slowdown and some big company is closed,and many investor take care of foreign stock market,they use HengSheng Index in Hong Kong market as a referrence.
Now after many investor and media said “2000 point losed”,”1900 point losed”,today,news paper will say “1800 point losed”,now index closed at 1723 point,nobody know what will happend tomorrow.
China investor report in 2008-10-27

China’s banking sector seems not been beat by sub-loan crisis

Today,The biggest bank ICBC(Industrial and Commercial Bank of China) reporeted his nine-month profit get 46% rise(13.54 billion U.S. dollars),It means ICBC earnings increase about 0.04$ per share.It seems china’s bank sector not been beat from global financial crisis,and I know agriculture Bank of China are still prepareing for list,So chinese bank not like korea and iceland,because sub-loan crisis face huge risk.

For avoid bank system occur crisis(although we can not find this risk now),china goverment had announce support real estate sector,but I think the price of real estate is to high for a normal family in China,there have data shown most of them spending 75% income to revert the loan of real estate.I think there must have more ways to support china worker and chinese economy.

dive over,dive over

Today it the weekend,although goverment had publish many policy to support the weak confidence of market,but stock in big CHINA area is still slide,lately we always hear many chinese people said 2000 lose,1900 lose,no we face 1800 losing,china mainland market is closed at 1839,the highest point is 1888.10,hongkong stock fall down 1100 potins,closed at 12618 point.Last weeks is heavy day,most of us will remember it.
Today MR Greenspan(Alan Greenspan) did not recognize his fault yet,he said he just have a little recognize error?All of us know there have not a market which can keep rise,road is always circuitous,MR Greenspan use all kinds of way to keep the bubble,and the bubble become bigger and bigger,at last it let everybody become MR GREED,it cause currency system breakdown.Look these face in financial crisis ,who cause it?

Taiwan stocks slide 1.62%,close at 4,862

Today Taiwan stocks slide 1.62%,close at 4,862.Since new leader of taiwan take up an official post,twaiwan stocks fall from 9,000 to 4,862,But most of chinese think it is not the new leader–Mr Ma’s fault.Acutally,Because last leader refuse increse the trade amount of china and taiwan,many foreign capital had to leave taiwan ,and taiwan lose the position of shipping center of asia.Next month,chinese leader of taiwan deparment will visit taiwan,so I think
it means china and taiwan will increase the trade between each other,and GaoXiong will pick the position of shipping center,although it means a damage to SHANGHAI,but as a chinese man,I HOPE PEACE,so it is accepted by most of chinese.Of cause,we all know it is not a easy goal,just 2 days ago,china official been hit in taiwan.

China:stock price plummeted 2.63% in morning session

Today chinese stock market continue fall trend,although china government announces some new policy,including
tax exemption and mortgage deposits reduction for boost the real estate sector,and reduce the tax of exports sector,but because fear of the global financial crisis
and bad data of company income,many people sale out their share.
At the same time,I found some big stockjobber are continue buy share.Actually,the PE of china stock market is in the low level in history.I think it means the people’s cognition of market trend is dividing,So there will have more wave int the market.

China and USA leader talk how to tackle global financial crisis

Yesterday,President Hu Jing Tao call to President Bush,talk about how to tackle global financial crisis,they all have cognizeance of international cooperation is necessary.
Lately,many papers said CHINA must buy more nation debt,CHINA must contribute his money to specical country.But,I had to say,CHINA have his trouble too.Close to 2008 3Q,The amount of foreign trade in CHINA increce 21%,but actually because US dollor depreciate in global system and CHINA YUAN depreciate in china inside system,the amount should been adjust to nearly zero or negative.AS we all know,2/3 of chinese GDP is base on foreign trade,So we can image the crisis that china will face.
I living china,and although there have many problem need to improve,but I love the country,I hope CHINA can face the crisis,not just say we have so strong economy…..,That is nonsense. Nearly,the biggest trade meeting in the world in GUANGZHOU,we found the amount of trade is just 1/3 of last year,What we need to do is stop saying,just doing,we are weak,not strong.