Available soon hasten the birth of two palm oil futures arbitrage opportunities of the highlights _ _ _ Sina Sina Financial Network

Li Wei Jingsheng

As a major futures varieties, palm oil futures rose fast or faster characteristics, doomed to investors in its listing will face greater risks, which will greatly test investors and investment risk control ability

Palm oil futures launched to stop but go ahead.

September 21, Dalian Commodity Exchange ( "DCE") formally brewing in the right palm oil futures to a>From the management and set the tone seemed to be more encouraging. Three days after the September 24, the General Office of the State Council issued a document related to the introduction of soybean, soybean oil, rapeseed oil futures>"The current DCE is ready introduced this year was not the problem." Research and development 98.7 futures of Kai Ma, general manager of optimism to the "Financial Times" prediction.

And as a completely unfamiliar futures varieties, or palm oil futures will cater to the characteristics of rapid affordability of high risk and hedging needs of investors and provide space for arbitrage. "First, investment diversification, two cross-species arbitrage, and the third is set outside arbitrage." DCE study of the Ministry of Information Liu varieties to the "Financial Times" said.

But experts, the temptation for investors in the future access to the futures products introduced by the opportunities that are still a long way to go.

Express rose faster or products

This will be a different from the previous Mercantile Exchange launched futures varieties of agricultural products.

Prior to this, China has existed wheat, corn, sugar, cotton and other agricultural products futures contracts, coupled with the newly introduced soybean, soybean oil and rapeseed oil futures contracts, the current nearly 10 varieties of agricultural futures. China's futures are these varieties and the leaders of the main producing areas.

But palm oil-producing areas in tropical areas, and China is just the leaders. It is understood that palm oil is second>Since January 1, 2006 the Chinese government started a vegetable oil import quotas, palm oil imports by leaps and bounds, is expected 2006/2007 annual imports of 600 million tons, accounting for 26.5% of oil consumption.

But over the years, palm oil spot price fluctuations fierce. According to statistics, from October 2001 to October 2003, domestic palm oil from 3,390 yuan / ton rose to 6,307 yuan / ton, or 86%; Since then go back to February 2005 to 4,195 yuan / ton, a drop of 33%; By June this year, palm oil prices have risen to 8,150 yuan / ton, from March 2003 up to almost 100%.

The futures market was also because such intense volatility was active. According to statistics, from January to July 2007, Malaysia Exchange ( "Malaysian Exchange") CPO futures 1732180 hands of the total turnover by 46%.

In fact, palm oil spot price volatility also transfer to the futures market. "The main producing areas, or the leaders of any signs of trouble, even the production, sales in the foreign trade and exchange rate policies minor adjustments, palm oil futures prices will bring a tremendous impact." Ma Kai stressed France.

This will be doomed to palm oil futures>The minimum threshold of 4,000 yuan

It is precisely because the international futures market transactions active, DCE, in the development of futures contracts lower threshold.

According to "test palm oil futures contracts and rules" ( "Rules and contracts"), palm oil futures trading units for a minimum 10 tons / hand, the minimum margin of 5%.

According to the current domestic market of about 8,000 yuan / ton spot price, and Liu, for every reporter estimate contracts margin – 8000 yuan / ton × 10 tons / Hand × 5% = 4,000 yuan.

This is far below the international market a similar product margin standards.

It is understood that the Malaysian palm oil prices Exchange, the lowest margin of 8.5%. "Solely>Stimulating transactions does not mean that the relaxation of risk control.

According to reports, the DCE development "contracts and rules", worries for palm oil futures rose 4.15 to settle at 4%, and soybean oil, rapeseed oil futures and other agricultural products futures rose the same worries and Exchange Malaysian palm oil futures contract settled at 10% of the session.

Water and Flame

Fast up fast or feature will allow investors like in the arbitrage between seawater and flame.

With stirred palm oil futures, futures investors will bring a huge arbitrage opportunity. Liu, in the view, the DCE palm oil futures investors will launch arbitrage and cross-species, the disc arbitrage opportunities.

Currently, futures markets have a rapeseed oil, soybean oil futures varieties, coupled with the upcoming palm oil futures, would constitute a complete system of vegetable oil futures.

It seems people in the industry, because among the three varieties has a very strong alternative, prices also affect each other, if long-term investors can use to track and the spread between can be achieved in oil futures arbitrage between varieties.

In addition, investors can be done within the set arbitrage. At present, many grain enterprises have invested in the international futures market for palm oil futures hedging in the domestic varieties of palm oil after the implementation of the international and domestic futures market also spread, which gave its arbitrage opportunities.

However, the risks should not be neglected. Ma Kai warned investors of the investment, we must first production, the sales areas have a comprehensive understanding of the market, followed by familiar with the details of the exchanges, in addition to the familiar spot market trends.

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