Archive for the ‘China Futures’ Category

The dollar's rally triggered futures fell _ futures Sina Financial News _ _ Sina

Reporter Li Qian 2008-6-3

Last week, the dollar began to rebound in a row. 、金属等无一能逃脱“厄运”。 The news hit the international commodity futures markets, triggered a variety of futures markets all fell, crude oil, gold, metals, such as no one can escape the "bad luck."

Gold slump

This round of the dollar's rally from last Tuesday, the last three days. The dollar's rally a direct result of the rapid international gold prices fell.

Last Tuesday, the sharp decline in international spot gold over 20 U.S. dollars, the minimum dropped to 903.3 U.S. dollars / oz. The next day, the international spot gold fell as low as 888.20 U.S. dollars. By Thursday, COMEX gold prices following the dollar's rally and rapid decline, fell to 877.20 U.S. dollars / oz. Crude oil futures also sharply lower Friday electronic trading was below 125 U.S. dollars.

The international gold fell, the main reason for this is the favorable U.S. economic data. The United States announced in April new home sales data for 526,000, higher than market expectations of 520,000, but the value will be transferred to the former 509,000, resulting in April, new home sales rise in the rate of 3.3 percent. Following the publication of data, the dollar immediately rose, gold started down. Although the United States released the same evening the S & P price index and the consumer confidence index have dropped sharply, but the pre-and, bad news against the dollar does not constitute, on the contrary, as long as the positive support to the dollar form.

U.S. new home sales market to move up to a very high rating, Goldman Sachs economists even think that the U.S. real estate market has already bottomed. At the same time, the price of crude oil pullback for gold has brought a lot of pressure. Russia and Saudi Arabia pledged to increase oil supply to the impact of lower crude oil prices have five U.S. dollars.

Industry analysis, the current gold as a hedge inflation has weakened the role of assets. In the first quarter U.S. economic growth better than expected, the dollar all rose, gold's attractiveness as an alternative currency also reduced.

Gold's slump has also affected the country. Shanghai Futures Exchange Friday December gold futures contract declined substantially by 6.63 to 195.07 yuan / g, or 3.29 percent.

The futures manager Zhu Yi Lin also said that since the acquisition of Bear Stearns settled the case boosted the stock market, the decline in gold hedging function. To speed up the adjustment of crude oil also increased the pressure on gold. The short run, many negative gold, gold may be re-tested the psychological line of 850 U.S. dollars.

Agricultural downturn trend

Rebound in the dollar exchange rate, crude oil futures prices lower, the weather conditions improved, and other factors, the market Chicago corn and soybean futures prices fell. Last Friday, CBOT corn contract 901 to 1,884 yuan lower open after a tight range, a substantial late Jiancang, to close at 1,876 yuan. The domestic maize is also within a week, four successive trading day down 13 cents momentum, Friday is the test early lows, the market popularity slump. At the same time, the international raw sugar in a row also decreased.

Many analysts said the dollar for agricultural products of great significance. All along, the prices of agricultural products was skyrocket, the most important factor is the international agricultural products generally dollar-denominated, the dollar continued weakness in promoting the bull market of agricultural products. Early adjustment of agricultural products is not deep, such as the dollar continues to rise, agricultural products also fell shocks.

In addition to agricultural products, basic metals international prices have also dropped, nickel and zinc futures prices hit new low over the past two years. May 30, the London Metal Exchange (LME) March copper closed at 7,889 U.S. dollars / ton, or 3.15 percent; Al-lun dropped by 2.72 percent. March period Fallon hit the lead after 1908.8 U.S. dollars / ton low for March 2007 since the middle of nickel-lun intraday record of 21,900 U.S. dollars / ton low, even in July 2006 has been low. Among them, in this collective slump in metal tin varieties hit the staggering 10.40 percent decrease for all species in the most.

The industry said that this round will collapse precious metals and base metals price shocks, but crude oil futures and agricultural products still exist in the supply and demand imbalance. Is expected to continue the sharp decline in the future the possibility of smaller, investors will be able to adjust according to the actual situation on investment in a timely manner.

chinainvestor:本版contents of the article was supplied by MarketWatch, does not constitute investment advice. Investors this operation, own risk.

Domestic futures fell mainly to the city – period – Financial Highlights – Sina Sina

Last week the domestic futures fell mainly to the major background is that the U.S. government to control inflation further the policy orientation, the dollar started strong, also at a high level of commodity markets Fengshengheli.

U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last Thursday announced that its oil futures market is to start a comprehensive investigation, to figure out whether there was manipulation of oil prices the phenomenon. This makes New York crude oil prices from a high of 135 U.S. dollars a straight line down 10 U.S. dollars, the Shanghai domestic fuel oil prices was finally suppressed in 5000 before the mark.

的上扬很大程度上被认为是依靠原油上涨的带动，因此当原油的涨势受到阻碍，农产品也难免受到压抑。 rose to a large extent is considered to rely on crude oil rose, driven, so when crude oil rally hampered by agricultural products is also bound to be suppressed. Last week the domestic vegetable oil, beans, corn, cotton, all show different degrees of decline, but in the earlier period of weak sugar and wheat in the low performance of a certain resistance, but the general trend is indeed quite Piankong, it is estimated that within the short-term adjustment of agricultural products The trend will continue.

Metals to zinc led to Variety, showing a comprehensive fell and precious metals are no exception, the trend is not optimistic.

Chen Zhou, the South China Futures

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Three major reasons for the rising international oil prices – futures Sina Financial News _ _ Sina

— The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) rotating presidency, the Algerian Energy and Mining Minister Khalil SHA Ji Buha recently said that depreciation of the dollar, market speculation and the loan-to-crisis led to skyrocketing oil prices is the main reason.

Khalil reiterated that OPEC will not be in September before the ministerial meeting to consider production. He said that OPEC's output accounted for only 40 percent of global output, and the current oil price is not determined by supply and demand fundamentals, and therefore can not be attributed to high oil prices OPEC.

Recent innovations in international oil prices even higher, topped 135 U.S. dollars per barrel last week, last trading day dropped to below 130 U.S. dollars.

Last week the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) announced that it will begin investigating U.S. crude oil futures market to find out whether there is price manipulation, and will promote the transparency of market transactions.

U.S. Masters Fund manager Michael Masters, in testimony before the U.S. Congress, over the past five years, investment in commodities futures market index fund size from 13 billion U.S. dollars surged to 260 billion U.S. dollars.

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Last year, bank holding commodities derivatives soared to 9 trillion U.S. dollars – of the city – Financial Highlights – Sina Sina

— According to the International Financial Services London (IFSL) yesterday reported that due to decline in the supply of raw materials, low interest rates to stimulate investor demand last year, the bank holding the derivatives of goods soared 27 percent, reaching 9 trillion U.S. dollars. London International Financial Services Bureau yesterday released the report quoted the Bank for International Settlements data, last year in all the derivatives, commodity derivatives proportion rose to 1.5 percent, while 10 years ago this proportion was 0.5 percent, at the time for the nominal value of 400 billion U.S. dollars . 2005 Bank of commodity derivatives held by the value of 3.6 trillion U.S. dollars.

The agencies, senior economist Marco Masi La Ke Wei Qi said that the estimate should be the fastest-growing energy derivatives. (Huang Yu)

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Before the May futures contract period of nearly 30 trillion City News _ _ _ Sina Sina Financial

Securities Times reporter Qiao Ning

— China Futures Association latest statistics show that in May this year, the general operation of the futures market steady, total turnover in futures contracts 85928616 hand, turnover amounted to 5.057149 trillion yuan, respectively, year-on-year increase of 117.96 percent and 87.65 percent, while the ring Respectively, a decrease of 20.38 percent and 12.52 percent.

According to statistics, 1-May total turnover of the futures market for 490271066 hand, total turnover for the 29483508000000 yuan, respectively, year-on-year growth of 167.03 percent and 163.31 percent. In total, the Shanghai Futures Exchange 1-5 in aggregate turnover 77369604 hand, total turnover 11355180000000 yuan, respectively, year-on-year increase of 20.99 percent and 40.49 percent. By Zheng 1-5 aggregate turnover 162837534 in hand, a total turnover of 6.326316 trillion yuan, respectively, year-on-year increase of 319.48 percent and 499.77 percent. Da Shangsuo 1-5 aggregate turnover 250063928 in hand, total turnover 11802012000000 yuan, respectively, year-on-year increase of 209.35 percent and 472.84 percent.

Data show that the Shanghai Futures Exchange May Volume 15439050 hand, the turnover of 2.05242 trillion yuan, which accounted for 17.97 percent of the national market and 40.44 percent respectively, year on year growth of 5.55 percent and 4.17 percent, ring up 23.30 percent and 18.83 percent . At the end of the total 663,824 positions in hand, at the end of the previous month and an increase of 4.54 percent. Zheng by May turnover 30862174 hand, the turnover of 1.146704 trillion yuan, which accounted for 35.92 percent of the national market and 22.59 percent respectively, year on year increase of 237.77 percent and 375.69 percent, the ring dropped by 28.39 percent, respectively, and 30.52 percent. At the end of the market total of 1298024 hand positions, at the end of the previous month and an increase of 3.54 percent. Da Shangsuo May turnover 39627392 hand, the turnover of 1.876025 trillion yuan, which accounted for 46.12 percent of the national market and 36.96 percent respectively, year on year growth of 153.06 percent and 280.26 percent, the ring were down 24.24 percent and 22.61 percent. At the end of the market total of 2045942 hand positions, at the end of growth of 1.20 percent the previous month.

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Natural rubber into the seasonal decline in the city – period – Financial Highlights – Sina Sina

Shanghai Dayin Wang Weibo

中期趋势转入震荡回落走势中，国际市场，海外美元胶以及新加坡市场3号烟片胶与20号标胶的大幅度滑落，均显示一段时间的供应紧张的格局正在逐渐改变，随着时间推移，期货市场提前发现价格的预期，预示着未来割胶季节，胶价整体将呈现出偏弱状态。 Last Friday, Hujiao futures Dieting, on the same rubber futures dropped significantly, sensitive to the futures market prices reversed the trend indicates that natural shocks fall into the medium-term trend trend in the international market and overseas market and the Singapore dollar plastic on the 3rd Yan Pianjiao standard plastic on the 20th and the sharp slide show that a period of tight supply situation is gradually changing, as time goes by, the futures market ahead of the expected price discovery indicates that the future Tapping season, will show a whole Jiaojia A weak state.

The past week, Hujiao futures has brought us a long-hoped-for passion, the previous Friday to Monday consecutive limit, limit of three long-hoped-for state, then a high level of放量stagnation, a downturn in prices downward, and even Friday's Dieting. It is clear that the experience of the market for the supply of short-term speculation, the market is gradually return to reasonable.

Simply look at recent trends, from the weekly's skyrocketing Hujiao; Wednesday to Tuesday's inability to Chonggao high Thursday, Friday announced that the way while Dieting-season rally of mortality. Two consecutive Friday, Hujiao futures market interpreted the冰火两重天the market, May 23 Friday in the long Hujiao the strong promotion of the strong limit, May 30 Friday, was in the overnight crash Drag, making the plastic Dikaidizou Hujiaotiaokong down, in one stroke after Dieting. May 27 The third panel mortality limit,放量Hujiao 809 contract transactions 810,000 in the initial formation of a high放量changing hands, the major longs quietly Jiancang dispersal of funds, short-term loss of frenzied speculation investment to do more价值. May 28 -29, the two consecutive trading day high of consolidation, to continue changing hands, the new and more at a loss intervention, the old and more quietly withdrew, the same plastic in the Elevated after experiencing steep and rapid plunge into, Friday, Plunged 16 yen, plastic, Hujiaodieting.

Natural rubber this strong seasonal movements of goods, will once again return to a seasonal decline in the trend, even in a bull market, 7,8,9,10 four months of each year the peak of supply, will be brought to the market The supply of heavy pressure. All fundamentals of profitable information has been included in the soaring prices in Shanghai on May 27-29 meeting of the derivatives, the author of the breakout of natural rubber remained to see more investment point of view put forward its own view that the completion of Jiaojia Limit the rate of close to three, the cumulative rise in energy gradually failure, the tight supply fundamentals have been reflected in a high enough price. At the same time period into June, the new plastic listed on the period, the supply will be gradually restored, increased pressure on the supply, will also continue to reflect in the market, so Jiaojia the trend will face a period of seasonal correction, The rate of decline will depend on supply and the recovery of the global commodity market as a whole changes.

Looking investors, despite the current trend of downward adjustment will be unavoidable, despite this year's global rubber production has become a foregone conclusion the city, but the actual stage in the fall is also a very healthy performance. Because the changes in the situation of supply and demand fundamentals, I believe it is very hard for this year Jiaojia return to the region in recent years low of 20,000 yuan – 18000 yuan / ton range, down Tapping test period of low prices has started.

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The collapse of the dollar zinc price pressure into the final straw – the city of Sina Financial News _ _ Sina

National League futures Zhu Ming-hsin yuan

May the case is destined for zinc will be volatile month, has undergone three or four months of weak consumption, zinc prices eventually began Xundi trip to seek more consumer admission. At the same time, the dollar's strength, the pressure has fallen zinc prices the last straw root, a number of factors seem to be as zinc prices continue to pave the way for the downlink.

The author believes that only consumption of zinc warming can really constitute an effective price support, such as inflation expectations, the Fund admission, its impact will be doomed to be limited. Zinc prices fell by more far-reaching significance of this round, will again return to its fundamentals.

For zinc prices fell, the most essential factor is the impact of weak consumer demand for zinc spot. This is in the international market and domestic market are there, as U.S. economic weakness led the major developed countries economic growth stagnated at the same time, China's macro-tightening policies to the world's largest basic metals demand of the slowdown in demand growth.

Since the supply of surplus zinc market has been going on for so long, why wait until now reflected ? This is the role of money: As the involvement of index funds, delayed the time zinc prices fell.

In the first quarter, due to depreciation of the dollar and rising global inflation expectations, the large number of index funds involved in the commodity market to avoid inflation risk, including metal markets are particularly sought after, which led to a period of strong metal prices.

Now, as the United States and the European rate cut space decreases the slowdown in economic growth, the dollar has suspended the pace of its depreciation, and recently, the U.S. dollar index in graphics technology, even signs of a bottomed, forcing fund managers Have to reconsider its investment strategy Shengshi. If the dollar bottomed and completed strong, then the investment goods will face great risk.

价的暴跌走势。 Therefore, I believe that the dollar has fallen zinc pressure the last straw that led to the price movements of the crash. On the overall situation, I believe that zinc prices have already started their Xundi trip, with the dollar's strength, financial assets are out, its price will again return to fundamentals, and the ultimate goal of this round down, it is to re-regulate the market The supply and demand pattern. With the price drop, will inevitably prompted some production capacity from out of the market, will also attract more consumer involvement. However, such adjustment is painful, is a long, sharp fluctuations in the prices of short-term it is difficult to avoid, the same will be its long-term pattern of the disadvantaged.

chinainvestor:本版contents of the article was supplied by MarketWatch, does not constitute investment advice. Investors this operation, own risk.

Cotton futures markets Tuesday announced the findings of City News _ _ _ Sina Sina Financial

Securities Times reporter Huang Yu

期货价格今年3月份出现非同寻常的剧烈震荡，造成了农场主的销售中断，现在棉花市场成为了监管当局调查的一个对象。 — It was close to the United States Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) said the survey, futures prices in March this year, an unusually turbulent, resulting in the interruption of sales farmers, the cotton market as the regulatory authorities in their investigation of an object .

It is learnt that the cotton futures market survey results may be announced this week two. Since futures prices and spot price differences exist abnormal, CFTC involved in the investigation. Currently the agency is also investigating whether the oil futures market being manipulated.

Intercontinental Exchange (ICE) Cotton futures prices this year on March 5 as high as 12-year high, following a row Taicuo, to March 10 fell 26 percent. During the supply fundamentals and there was no dramatic changes, traders in April at a hearing that speculation gained strength in commodity prices play an important role.

In the past few months, farmers, businessmen and transport companies complained of price volatility can not lead to its normal position sets of security. Spot price and futures price spreads between the expansion of cotton traders to increase the cost of sets of security, but also a sharp price fluctuations affect the U.S. cotton exports. In the April 22 hearing, the company said Dunavant cotton traders, the market ran out of control, the need to regulate the sector involvement take corresponding measures.

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Negative copper prices gradually appear after the second quarter of the city will also downlink _ _ Sina Financial Highlights – Sina

â–¡ Shenyin Wanguo futures Li Chao

Deterioration of the global financial environment brought about by lower external demand, will enable China to investment and exports as the main engine of economic growth there slowed down, and lead to reduced non-ferrous metals consumption. The next period of time, supply, exchange rates, capital and related metal dynamic Tongshi on the bearish trend will gradually appear, the second quarter, after copper prices may also run down.

China's refined copper output expansion

China's copper concentrate imports in the past four months increased again. January to April this year, total imports of copper concentrate 1.8671 million tons, 07 and 06 over the same period, the figure was 1.511 million tons and 1.22 million tons. In addition, 1-April average monthly imports of 466,800 tons, respectively, over the same period last year and the year before to 377,800 tons and 305,000 tons. From this we can judge, 08 years is still a large number of domestic copper smelting capacity expansion.

Domestic production led to increased market supply increased, the number of imports will weaken, thereby weakening the city's dependence on Lundun Tong, Lundun Tong gained negative. This, in turn, makes clear domestic prices under pressure, and increase the downward pressure.

Jiang Cheng largest negative exchange rate factors

Although the depreciation of the dollar can improve the international competitiveness of U.S. products, and improve America's international balance of payments situation, but hope to reduce the dollar exchange rate to stimulate the economy are still risks. Depreciation of the dollar increase in the price of imported goods, pushed up the U.S. domestic inflation and economic growth stimulus is gradually diminishing. With the deepening of inflation on the economy by promoting the development will eventually lead to destruction.

Cut to a certain extent, can stimulate the economy, but low interest rates will again trigger inflation, which is the Fed in the current interest rate level is extremely cautious on one of the reasons why. Fed officials concerned by the recent speech to the market once again issued a rate cut cycle end of the argument. The author believes that in order to curb inflation in the latter part of the Fed interest rate increase may arise during the year. Once the U.S. interest rate increase, the market is likely that a new cycle of interest rate increases began. This is all the current dollar-denominated commodities, is a potentially huge negative.

Luntong obvious signs of the dispersal of funds

LME overall positions in a marked decline in the near future, this is particularly evident in the performance of Tongshi. Luntong positions from the current maximum of 280,000 to 240,000 hand in hand around, since April 16 after the end of the crowded positions, positions on a continuous decline, which is even more is doubtful, launched the current round of the fund market has been In a profit-taking in. The dollar's recent rebound, this could lead to profit-taking more frequent and rapid.

价横向整理过程中，始终伴随着智利罢工因素的存在，但未对伦铜市场产生任何影响。 In addition, in the course of sideways, always accompanied by Chile strike the existence of factors, but did not have any impact on the market Luntong. And after the crash was the result of the dollar rebound. Numbness of the favorable market, but particularly in the sensitive bad that the rising prices have lost momentum, after copper prices also confirms the trend of the market extremely weak.

Or fell into a small metal sign

格相对平稳，伦敦市场整体处于调整态势，但铅和镍的大幅下挫应该引起足够关注。 Recent LME relatively stable, the London market as a whole going through an adjustment situation, but lead and nickel plummeted should attract enough attention. Basic metal from the past trend of highly relevant, if the trend clearly differentiated variety of metal, the metal as a whole will inevitably impact. In fact, the price of nickel in the May 07 mid-peaked shortly after the sharp plunge, is the crisis of the late dimensionless loan-to-metal lead to the collapse of the global preview.

Metal division and the trend appears to do with supply and demand. Although the rebound in copper stocks has not yet obvious, but in the current round of rising prices in most other species appear to increase inventory, including lead, zinc, aluminum is particularly evident. Based on the overall supply and demand in one of the non-ferrous metals theory, the global non-ferrous metals for the decline in overall consumer has to show concern, and copper prices also inevitably will be affected. With the consumption of the low season approaching, the global economic slowdown of the background, the author believes that the overall decline in non-ferrous metals consumption will gradually worry in the stock price and performance up.

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During the year prices are built at the top of City News _ _ _ Sina Sina Financial

â–¡ Su of futures Jiming

很快就出现了震荡回落态势。 Luntong in the first quarter of the peak season demand stimulated strive upward, and in April again broken in May 2006 a record high, but quickly dropped a concussion situation. At present, Luntong map of the week indicates that the year is at the top of the structure is taking shape at the same time, fundamental aspects are key factors in the Piankong direction of change.

First of all, the U.S. dollar depreciated significantly in recent years is the rising global commodity important factor, but after this situation will be changed, because short-term bottom dollar there the possibility of repeated shocks will continue with strong year.

The U.S. trade deficit from the 2005 level of GDP7% drop to below 5 percent. Weak dollar for the export trade, the trade deficit is expected to decline further this year. In addition, while the second half of the U.S. presidential election, external expansion policy of contraction, may greatly improve the government's budget deficit. Now the Fed has hinted that a rate cut suspended in the face of high oil prices, interest rate increase may not rule out the possibility. These are beneficial to resolve the already Chaodie the dollar. Dollars from the technical indicators, weekly and monthly line MACD indicators have deviated from there, indicates that there will be many years down the situation changed.

Secondly, since 2003 Luntong rose, pushed up each wave, the "China factor" as an important aspect was said and institutions. However, the long period of high prices to the domestic industry structure has changed, and in turn improve the smelting capacity, and imports of scrap copper ore and hence can not count on China as in the past the bulk purchase of refined copper.

January to April this year, total imports of 506,700 tons of refined copper, down by 23 percent. As production increase, the growth rate of decline will be in China in international procurement of the norm. According to statistical data speculated that this year China's refined copper in the availability of 5.23 million tons, up 9.6 percent; consumption by an average annual growth rate of 11.1 percent, roughly estimated at 5.06 million tons level so there will be about 170,000 tons of surplus . Now when consumption of traditional peak season, prices have to be on; then, the attendant can boost consumer demand for low season? ?

This year, both international and domestic economic situation has adverse change, and can not have economic prosperity in 2006 when compared to the world. Therefore expect global demand to pull copper prices is impossible.

So, the task can only Elevated prices from the supply side to bear. At present the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventories of about 125,000 tons. As inventories have been low, so any supply disruptions or fine copper tense news can trigger a wave of rising prices. Chile was the case early strike.

Nevertheless, the global refined copper and refined copper production or a certain growth. According to ICSG latest report, the global refined copper market this year will be a surplus 85,000 tons, the 2009 surplus supply of 429,000 tons.

All in all, LME copper is being built at the top of the year, in spite of supply factors to stimulate prices rose, but the basic nature of a rebound, can not be sustained up to promote. On the contrary, as time goes by, to supply and demand structure in the downlink direction, and may have fallen sharply.

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