Archive for the ‘China real estate’ Category

China must guard against asset bubbles

Last CCTV reported,the price of an apartment in Bei Jing increased by 60% in few months, from 13500 YUAN /square meters to more than 20000 YUAN/square meters, it means 2950 U.S. dollars / square meters, or let’s say 275 U.S. dollars / square feet. In many better community area, it is normal for 30000 YUAN /square meters, or 4412 U.S. dollars / square meter , or 410 U.S. dollars / square feet, I know many villa saled in in Los Angeles, their price is 218 U.S. dollars /  square feet to 300 U.S. dollars / square feet, I feel very surprised !!And China’s housing is not property rights.  We know in BeiJing , many middle-class income is 500 U.S. dollars / month, it means a middle-class family muse save all money to paid the loan of house all them life!

At present,  many factory have not enough order ,and there are still many many migrant workers lost their job in city, the price of real estate is continuning rising, but the price of rental is still drop down. Such a background , the land prices and housing prices climbed crazy, it is new record in china history.  some senior official in some province said their salary can not support an apartment, some economists say if use their salary they will own a toilet in BeiJing.  Now the price of real estate is far away with people’s actual purchasing power.People had save all money for an apartment, and their don’t dare to spend money on other consumer goods. CCTV said yesterday, some business owners to closeing  factory, investing house, I think it is a big mistake. 30 years, these factory and works is the wealth of  chain reform, if them disapear in the bubble burst, that is the biggest loss for chinese people.

As we all know, Japan’s land and housing prices have been very expensive, but before 1990, suddenly, the house price just keep 20% of one year before, sub-loan crisis in USA, the crisis in the  Southeast Asia(1997) , the house price is keep a high level, but when the asset bubble burst , it dragged down the financial system and real economy . The central bank is not the ultimate, the people are. The price of asset can not be divorced from the actual bearing capacity of the people for a long-term,otherwise the reaction will play bad.

In this crisis, china should adjust the structure of economic,we must support medium-sized company, because them solved the most of employment problem. And these company is sensitive for the signal of price, interest rate. China should use more money to support high teconology company, and promote the real domestic demand , not number of GDP, it seems there are some part of money is wasted, CCTV reported yesterday a company get 27,500,000,000 loan from bank, we really need so high a price of house?loose monetary policy requires a risk assessment mechanism to enhance efficiency in the use of funds, and should be solving the employment and enterprise development, otherwise it is difficult and dangerous in long-term eyes. I said China’s gdp growth rate in the first half of the year, not bad, but we need the gdp growth is a long-term growth and people must get the profit from the growth, the budget of people is more important than gdp number.

The implementation of the policy can not be selectively implemented,cctv yesterday reported that some enterprises are long-term accumulation of land, there are a law bind this kind of business action , but no any one execution it, the problem is not only the execution power.

I born in china, I living in china, I loving china, I concerning the situation.

I am fear

I must recognition, I am FEAR.

Why, I read paper today, the price of a house in suburbs rose up 100% in recent 6 moths !!  In many city the price of real estate rose up more than 30% in recent  3 months .

I read a report wrote by Social Sciences OF China, in China , nearly 40% small and medium-sized company closed , I watching CCTV ,  the press said in Bei Jing Train Station , a worker just eat 1 YUAN for his dinner. Official said there are more than 20,000,000 migrant workers lost their job. I hear some old woman said to another old woman, her grandson had graduate more than 1 year but can not find job.

So rapid increase in prices of real estate make some business owners do not work, they use their money to invest real estate , I think it is a big error. I think the most important things in current China is not GDP, I think the most important things in the current China is Employment Rate . If business owners use their money to invest in real estate, that means more worker will lost their job.

And, many reporter said in china, most of people can not support the price of real estate .  So who are buying and help to rising the price of real estate.When the price of real estate rising 30% in 3 months, the price of chummage drop down 20% ~ 30% too ,Why the strange thing happened in the same time?  A paper reported that one personal buy 34 house in  2 months ,  he can use a low loan rate get many money, and in 3 months, he got 30% profit , there called “investor” , these people not only get profit from difference of prices , when they buy a house , they rental the house in the market, but many worker can not find a job, so one hand there are many house push into the market , but in the other hand , lower people need these house.

I think there are many people in china need a house, but the price of real estate had make a family must use their 70% income to support the loan more than 30 years , it is really make many people FEAR.

Last month, there are 100,000,000,000$ unexplained funds come in china, I really warry about the store of “South-East Asian crisis” or  the story of “Vietnam” happened in China.In last 6 months, there are 6,800,000,000,000 loan been put in the market , this is a record in china , if these money can not been use Stimulate factory begin working , but let factory closed and “invest ” real estate , that will create CRISIS.

I had to say, I am fear , for a long time in recent 3 months.

No time, just write a short note, hope somebody can read it and hope china have a good future.

China prevent illegal credit capital from flowing into the real estate market

China national newly loans reach as high as 5840 billion in former 5 months, creating a historical record.China’s financial regulatory authorities recently issued an urgent notice, to prevent the inflow of credit funds from flowing in real estate market. even though the global economy still in recession, but China’s housing prices has been rapidly rising for several months.

Survey shows that 60% China residents think housing prices is high

People’s Bank of China announced 2009 cities and towns depositors survey of the second quarter, showed that consumer consuming-willingness decline and willingness of  savings and investment enhance.

Survey showed that 47% of urban residents select “save more”, this proportion increased by 9.5% than the previous quarter, rose to a record high; only 15.1% of urban residents choose “more consumption,” decline 14.6%, down to historic lows.

60% residents think the current house price “high, it is difficult to accept.”

30 real estate prices lead to rise in Beijing

According to media reports, more than 30 real estate projects price are increasing in Beijing in May,the the current increasing trend is in expansion. However, a number of specialists said, at present, significant increases in the property market do not have the foundation. the blind housing price rise should be alert.

China Social and Sciences Academy experts say house prices will come down 40-50%

China Social and Sciences Academy experts say house prices will come down 40-50%

Beijing has massive housing stock, because house prices are too high, resulting the idle housing in Beijing is now about 10,441,000 square meters. in April, there have 10 new sites listed in Beijing market, in February and March ther are 10 listed new building. Beijing Social Sciences Academy, Deputy Director of the Sociology Institute,Dai Jianzhong said that “experts usually think the reasonable ratio of country house price to the family annual income is 3:1 to 6:1. in Beijing in 2007 the average annual disposable income of households is 65,967 yuan.when the average house price is 15,162 yuan per square meter at the end of the year , 100 square meters in accordance with the average terms, the ratio of the price to income is 23:1,which is much higher than the standard 3:1 to 6:1. “Chinese Academy of Social Sciences,Chao haijian believe that the economic growth situation does not support housing prices rising, income levels and income growth also do not support housing prices rising, the level of urban property prices in China still have 40% to 50% of price falling space.

Experts believe that house prices have 40% to 50% price reduction Spaces

  According to media reports, experts believe that house prices are still declining trend the times, the current prices compared to income of residents is still too high. At the international level, the reasonable proportion of house prices compared to household income is 3-5 times, but now China ratio reach about 12 times, that means all the income of a resident for 12 years without food or drink are only enough to pay one Suite son. This is far beyond the reasonable proportion, housing consumption influenced and overdraft other consumption of a lot of buyers. Experts said house prices have 40% to 50% of the declining price space, probably the bottom after two years.

Beijing: “spring warm up real estate market ”activity

Beijing: “spring warm up real estate market “, the Government urged the developers to cut prices
Beijing is about to start ” spring warm up real estate market ” activities led by the Beijing Municipal Government.This activity is in line with the just-introduced Beijing 15 New Deal, so that the Government’s preferential policies can link up with developers as soon as possible, bubble of real estate market will be finally squeezed out, achieve volume recover.

 

Property prices decline 30% in Beijing

Property prices fall by some 30% in Beijing
after the Spring Festival, property market of Beijing set off a new round of price surges. Some of property developers once again open a significant discount sales and even reach 30% decline. the specialists said Government promote many policies for property trade, but buyers are still waiting to see, developers need to fall the price to promote the transaction.

Administration of Taxation: individuals who transfer their purchased ordinary housing for over 2 years can enjoy zero tax

I have read the recent preferential policies about housing: in 2009, if individuals sell their ordinary housing which are bought for more than two years (including two years) , the exchange would be exempted
from sales tax.
I read a news the day of yesterday,the mayor of Beijing and Shanghai said that the price of housing is too high. I found that many people are capable to purchase their own apartment without any consuming for entirly 30 years.at the same time,some real estate businessmen and local officials said,they cann’t allow the price of house to fall down.
so I believe this is a good policy which can provide the more housing source for the ordinary people who want to buy their house and result in the decline of house price indirectly.