Chief market analyst for black beak away – Information Center – Finance

Properly understood the intent of Regulation

Li Zhilin (Sin)

Since late August, the stock market, and tighten control of the largest is unprecedented, and many people resulting "China will be the end of the bull market", "build market is similar to the 2001 2245 nodded Ministry" conclusions. In this respect, I do not agree with that the intent of the regulation should be fully understood.

The purpose is not to control the stock market tumble, but do not wish to rise for excessive. Remember the "5.30" after the collapse of the June 4, the three were a commentator's article reported that "regulation is not to suppress the market, but we hope slowly up" attitude. I think it applies equally. Recently many people have misunderstood the policy direction will again assert that "5.30" plummeted. This projection is very fragile, history is not> The goal is not to control the request of the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock market valuation of the stock market and offshore mature integration. China has been concerned that the current stock market is still "emerging and transition" period, which means valuation can immediately with international practice. CCB issued recently, the price of Shenhua's price-earnings ratio is still 32 times, 43 times higher than that of mature stock market valuation doubled after listing naturally higher valuation. It can be expected that as more H shares, red chips reunification, the price will not be lower earnings, it is not possible to lower the valuation of the A shares, it will become the current A-share valuation support.

In order to control the stock market is not the end of the bull market, but make it more stable and healthy development. Many people assert that the "end of the bull market," based> This is far-fetched, Japan's stock market bubble collapse is the fundamental reason for the collapse of the bubble economy entities, and the current health of the Chinese economy is still in development, can maintain the high growth of at least 20. Moreover, China's economic growth rate three times higher than Europe and the US State; Performance of China's Listed Companies 70% of the world – not high growth; Central enterprises listed assets of> These four high-growth factors to reduce China's stock market has become the valuation bubble "defoamer" to ensure that China's stock market continued bull market will continue.

With supply and demand of the vast number of investors> When God, in October, after the oil market will break the current banking stocks> The next red-chip China Mobile, China Netcom listed, even heavyweights such as "princes separatism", then the index will be much more stable now, the tools will become increasingly out of control, the frequency will fall substantially reduced, prices of stocks will be more and greater opportunities and selecting the right stocks will be done in the long-term Wei Ran rife. In this sense, the expansion of market shares of the negative role of the stock market is temporary, and positive role in the long-term. When people in a control> (The author is ECNU enterprises and economic development director of the Institute, Ph.D.)

≠ underweight allocation

Guigaomeng

Share reform until now had been almost two and a half years, many companies listed> Therefore, the state-owned shares will be no significant reduction in the market, the topic has generated considerable discussion. Recently, the media, have long ceased to social security funds allocated by the state-owned shares will be re-activated. This has led some investors nervous, worried that they will result in the reduction of state-owned shares to a climax.

In fact, for those who owned the original non-tradable shares, stocks to be listed after the systematic circulation of the right, there have been relevant agreement. SAC recently to prevent the arbitrary reduction of these shares has also specialized documents, made some restrictive provisions. So now, there is no large proportion of state-owned shares – reduction issues. As for the allocation of social security funds of state-owned shares, which belong to another question, it is then discussed.

As we all know, China has established a social security system late, due to historical reasons, the existence of an objective source of social security funds are limited, the issue of shortage of funds, how to supplement social security funds as soon as possible to make up the shortfall, has become the establishment and improvement of China's social security system in a major event. In 2001 the government allocated substantial social security funds of state-owned shares the vision and specific programs where the company by issuing new shares of newly issued 10% of the original ratio of the state-owned shares will be issued stock, to raise funds to supplement social security funds. This measure was also carried out some experiments, later, due to the stock market declined substantially, in order to maintain stability, decided to stop the reduction of state-owned shares, it will no longer be the pilot. But if domestic enterprises in overseas stock issuance, still have to continue. Therefore, from this perspective,> The question now is, now the active stock market, the original circulation of the state-owned shares can begin circulation, and inadequate social security fund still exists to allocate a certain proportion of state-owned shares to the Social Security Fund be said to be a natural thing. The problem is that these state-owned shares in the past allocated to the hands of the Social Security Fund, will be sold immediately? This question should be as specific analysis, first of all, state-owned shares in the secondary market by the proportion of underweight, theoretically speaking, the social security funds allocated to this part of the state-owned shares have agreed to follow the restrictions, and, therefore, can not be allocated to the reduction of excess. Secondly, it is now the social security fund despite the shortfall in funds, but this is a point against their future to pay for the total amount, it is not yet exist can not afford the current problems, which means there is no liquidity problem. This means that the social security funds need now is to expand the total, through the effective operation and value addition to meet future needs. Therefore, it is now more foreign investment, including the purchase of stock. Then get allocated shares in general may not choose to sell. Third, taking into account the social security fund is not of concern to be listed> By contrast, the state-controlled listed companies, shareholders, as to ensure control, the reduction in equities will be some more cautious.

Based> The social security funds, need to do now is what the value of assets rather than cash. So it is clear that the allocation of ≠ underweight, investors do not have to worry. As for the reduction of state-owned shares, according to the relevant department of commitment with the agreement in light of the actual situation and steadily push, which will accelerate the reduction of state-owned shares of hearsay is not credible.

(The author is chief economist at Shenyin Wanguo Research Institute)

Sensitive and turbulence

Text –

Many of the recent news in the financial sector, we increase income, the U.S. interest rate cut, so we can see that China's A shares rose, the stock market rose. So think Greenspan, thought to be "open", "Hong Kong equities through train" for Hong Kong.

Former Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, a case has been repeatedly cited, he said, economic expansion, the market dominated by the hysteria, and then to the bubble. "Only such fanaticism burst, the bubble will burst." Greenspan early September attended by academic journals, "the Brookings report of economic activity," an event organized by the China made the following comments: bubble adjustment, the interest rate can not be reduced, mankind has never been found confrontation bubble method.

Greenspan warned: The current market volatility in the 1837 land speculation credit crisis, the banking crisis in 1907, the 1987 stock market crash, the 1998 Long Term Capital Management is very similar to bankruptcy.

Greenspan's warning very confused, meaning an observer, it is thought. To know that he has retired, a stay> "Hong Kong equities through train" had not been implemented, but Hong Kong stocks rose early to receive. We have to concentrate> September 13, the day of Alcoa will hold its seven years of 884.2 million shares Chalco full selling, generating two billion Hong Kong dollar. The catalog, September 6, which is> Here is a list of representative the right to sell shares in the financing, in addition there are many.

Selling shares in the funding of these institutions are not listening out Greenspan's implication? The Hang Seng Index, they moved it early for that: – September 13 Hang Seng index is 24552,> Are they wrong? The author observed that the time to take a longer, may wish to October 19 and October 27 to see again.

Greenspan's warning and the right to sell the shares in funding the end result or the A-share market, our concern is how deep pockets in the end. Now issuing new shares rather intensive, the number of new share subscription funds continuously record high, the effects of a market. We can come to this list:

Look for the stock market supply and demand balance. The stock market rose due to a lot, but the most basic is the imbalance between supply and demand, that is, more money flows of proliferation, highlighted stock shortage. Increase the supply of the stock market will certainly slow the rate of increase.

To reduce the risk of the stock market bubble burst. These market shares are "Ahmad", a good performance will the A-share market as a whole reflect the economic situation more real, and to lowering the overall high price-earnings ratio.

The overall fund-trigger Wharf acts. These new issuance and listing of new shares "super carriers" definitely yes Fund to the species distribution, the Fund must of course some of the shares of cash available funds to embrace the "super carrier."

We therefore worthy of the incident more, the Federal Reserve> Of course, facing the hot money to domestic shocks and the expected inflation situation becomes more severe, the economic stability and financial security fears even worse than before.

The author thus come to the conclusion that the stock market will enter a sensitive and volatile period.

(The author is general manager of investment-Hing)

LONDON embrace the market in October

Lu Qi water (Fashion)

In October, the transaction is less, but the market "leak" has many: 1, a holiday, the interest of all investors is the first thing in the long holiday overseas stocks, particularly stock performance. Expected stock will rise during the holiday, October 8 A shares will inevitably open sharply higher, but high-opened after the holidays cloning previous high prices continue to go higher still open "and the crazy," is a great suspense; 2, the first week after the holidays, investors may also face innovation can also high in September CPI, raising the deposit reserve ratio, higher interest rates, the market will issue special debt and plagued investors in October trading decisions; 3,3-quarter results and statements from the notice after the holidays quantities released, some institutions that third quarter sales growth still with the flat rate of the first half, but more organizations that company performance in the third quarter of a growth trend inflection point is a foregone conclusion. Then, a good performance is the icing> 4, the new oil in the first heavyweight preganglionic has taken to the "Guardian", but it will arrange for the IPO in October, will affect the October capital deployment. 5,10 in the IPO, and the issuance of additional shares, large shareholders holdings of thawing will reach 125.5 billion, "- size" thaw will reach a record 199.8 billion, in the face of such a heavy pressure> 6, the real estate industry to lead the economic entities left hand and is linked to the economic capital, in the appreciation of assets, fair value, the real estate market has become injection "spiritual pillar" of the state, have introduced measures to control the real estate will play a "firefighting" role of the stock market's progress also to be critical. 7, the Construction Bank of China and China Shenhua index will be recorded in October, the oil market will soon,> 8, Europe and the United States financial institutions, accounting for a year in November, there are many offshore investment bank predicts that U.S. Subordinated Debt crisis may resurgence in late October, which affects the stock market, other Asia-Pacific markets. 9, the non-ferrous metal stocks have nowhere stagflation; Unit has 3,112 real estate division; Mutual institutions relay aviation, coal, steel stocks have begun to fall, but the financial sector could still be maintained after the bodies were close dominant market is gradually disintegrate, differences in height, is bearish agencies the assimilation of many institutions, or agencies can be more bearish institutions infections, in October should be setting. 10, from the beginning of the end of August, the new fund issued approval had been suspended, with the new influx of funds to apply to the Fund in October Jiancang phenomenon will be a vacuum. At the same time, stock and fund accounts has begun to gradually decline, replaced by the bank's financial products shake new shares start pushed …

October is a hectic blend season, it seems that in October this year, the stock market as well. In October the market will accept the above factors of three-dimensional inspection, testing and the results were short-term and medium-term market trend could have a decisive impact.

????（本文作者为证券通专业资讯网首席分析师）

Why think of the old "adjustment"

Wei Branch Road

Adjust the word itself is neutral, but it will be used in the stock market in general as lower down has become a byword. When the index rose for a longer period of time and more significantly, the proper adjustment is a good thing, the bull market moved to a more healthy and lasting. But the market is often not in the direction of the wishes of the people and subjective manner. If always think of adjustment would be exhausted, it is difficult to fully share the fruits of the bull market.

If the risk is disappointing September raid, but the Topix index was secure and close at a record high of 5552 points. Although September's IPO financing amounted to more than 1,500 yuan, but the market has not been too great an impact, which fully demonstrated the resilience of the market. The stock through train, and the QDII will shunt part of the funds, in October the pressure continues, and "major" and "non-small" lifting the peak arrival of supply and demand may arise subtle changes, but in general it will not balance.

From a historical point of view, the probability of October larger adjustments, but we can not simply say this year will be dropped in October. Multiple October larger differences of course, but volatile trend will not affect the general trend of the bull market, this need not be too worried. "Bubble"> Current Overall, the species really being underestimated relatively small, after all, the Shanghai A-share stock arithmetic average price has been more than 19 yuan, even by 2007 the dynamic price-earnings ratio of not lower, but in an atmosphere of the bull market, people from more willing to look at long-term development issues, regardless of the short-term will not be too adjustment or not.

Bulletin three listed companies to increase disclosure of the profit and loss excluding non-recurring earnings per share, such requirement for investors to understand, which gains from the core business, which benefits the future existence of uncertainty is conducive to investment decision. Reports from the 2007 non-financial services companies of the total profit contribution to the growth, the principal operating margins improve, operating expenses, lower management costs, lower finance costs, lower investment income increased for the contribution of 33.6%, 16.1%, 18. 5%, 10.0% and 36.7%, the contribution of investment income from the larger, inevitably people worry too solid growth performance. The author believes that the future income investors still small contribution of time and will continue longer, to a greater extent due to the completion of Unit, batch after batch of non-tradable shares by the lifting of the ban, listed companies have a stake gradually realized the opportunity. Regardless of how listed companies are non-recurrent earnings continuity, of course,> The performance of listed companies in the future growth rate may be more than most people expected, the bullish market will continue to have rhythm, not always worried about adjustments.

(The author is well-known, senior analyst)
Shanghai Securities News

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