China needs to continue to support bullish futures prices _ _ Sina Financial Highlights – Sina
Posted on May-31-2008· by china investor
After each from Shanghai's Wang Lu
Yesterday in Shanghai at the "International Seminar on the basis of metal", the experts from home and abroad on the basis of the metal supply, demand and prices for the analysis and prospects, and the crisis surrounding the loan-to-launched open-ended discussion.
The experts believe that the loan-to-crisis will gradually affect the real economy, thus affecting the demand for the metal. 今年还会上涨。 However, China's rising demand in North America will make up for the shortfall caused by sluggish demand, will rise this year.
The loan-to-crisis have yet to be eliminated
France and France-sheng, president of investment bank researchå¢å¡è¥¿åˆ©æ™®said that the economic situation now where can use letter "L" to describe that the economic downturn, will be at the bottom for a longer period of time. The loan-to-crisis affected the credit market, banks will be more cautious, and will consider adjusting its strategy, the United States and the European economic recovery can not be soon, U.S. interest rates will not rise soon.
RBSSempraMetals Yuehankanpu chief economist said that although the United States and Europe in the real estate market has not seen dramatic decreases, but the 2009 to 2010, including housing and office buildings, no signs of new projects started, there is no reason for access The new loan. The loan is expected crisis will gradually affect the entity's economic development.
China will not demand a tightening
China's demand for the existence of austerity, said the overseas market worries. China Nonferrous Metals Industry Association vice president Jia star that the country's tight monetary policy on Cu-Al little effect on demand. China's economic growth rate will not be reduced, thus the metal will not cause too much impact on supply and demand situation and the great majority of rural areas is also available in the construction and transport needs, that domestic demand is still far from being developed.
This year, China's snowstorm and earthquake occurred on metal prices will have an impact. Star said Jia, Hunan, Guizhou and Jiangxi is a major province in China non-ferrous metal production, and power supply problems on the impact of large aluminum production. Overall, the snowstorm is greater than the impact of the earthquake. Sichuan Aba aluminum plant seriously damaged in the quake, the construction industry will stimulate the consumption of non-ferrous metals.
Aluminium: a shortage of electricity production bottlenecks
Electricity shortages as the next aluminum production capacity constraints a major bottleneck, subject to the concerns of the participants. The British non-ferrous metal commodities research manager Paul Robinson pointed out that South Africa and the world's power shortage makes the price of aluminum is expected to continue to reduce. South Africa because of China's power shortage and snowstorms, earthquakes and other emergencies affecting the state of the market cushion will gradually decline, is expected in 2008 as the global aluminum surplus of 575,000 tons, representing a previous forecast of 1.2 million to 1.3 million tons a substantial cushion for Low. 预测，表示今明两年é“ä»·å°†ä¸ä¼šä½ŽäºŽ2800美元。 Based on this, he raised the 2009's forecast that the next two years Aluminum will not be less than 2800 U.S. dollars.
Paul Robinson that, despite the existence of aluminum in some cushion, but only to maintain the basic balance of supply and demand in the event of unexpected events, will soon be consumed cushion, and some production projects may be delayed, will lead to Aluminum Such as copper, nickel, etc. as quickly soaring.
Copper: copper prices will rise this year
On copper, copper Yuehankanpu that this year will rise. 1 to June due to supply and support China's demand growth in North America offset by a reduction of weak demand, prices will remain strong; 6 months to 2 years of time, due to global economic growth decline, manufacturers will reduce productivity in order to maintain high prices and High returns, from 2 to 5 years in the long term, copper prices fell by the need to make up for the previous growth, relative to other raw materials to maintain the competitive edge.
Zinc: yield market in general to see empty
Lead-zinc-air market to see significant emotional. CHR Metals Limited on behalf of off-Roberts noted that the global supply of zinc concentrate continued to increase, with the exception of new mine development, but also including the reopening of old mines and expansion. 2008 zinc concentrate is expected to yield an increase of about 1 million tons, most of the surplus production capacity concentrated in China, its fine zinc output growth far more than other parts of the world.
。 But he also said that the export tax policy changes worry about constraining the As other parts of the world zinc smelting capacity deficiencies, if China blocked fine zinc exports, will support LME zinc prices higher. chinainvestor:本版contents of the article was supplied by MarketWatch, does not constitute investment advice. Investors this operation, own risk.
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