Derivatives: the originator of modern financial thinking of the period City News _ _ _ Sina Sina Financial

There are uncertainties, there are finance and derivatives has led to the emergence of financial instruments from this endless, and academia to address the long-troubled asset pricing issues opened up a brand new way. It not only let us see that the traditional categories based tools (such as stocks, bonds, etc.) the value of content, but also so that we can (relatively) accurately grasp the derivative instruments like the intrinsic value. Unfortunately, all these finance the latest developments and achievements China has not caused enough attention to the mainstream scholars.

⊙ TIAN

According to reports, by the end of May in Shanghai will have a financial derivatives on the large-scale seminars. Although no one invited me to participate in, but I am still very concerned about this, because to my derivatives is one of the main inquiry, to the derivatives in China has just begun, with broad space for development. Of course, the most important of all, the results of the derivatives often represent the most contemporary finance the forefront of development of modern finance is thinking of the "gathering" and more widely applied to various areas of the economy.

Chang Ting said that now thought to use financial analysis of the problem, then in the end what it is thinking of finance ? For most people, instituted a "financial" the word, often quickly think of two things: First, it is a branch of economics; Second, with banks, stocks and currencies such as the "money" Contact things are closely related. As everyone knows, these two Lenovo are specious, or can be said to be a fundamental mistake.

First of all to talk about finance and economics relations. The first time, people on the financial problems of economics is indeed in the framework of the start, early in the financial field achievements are also the majority of economists, but also a small number of mathematicians, statisticians and even physical Jurists. However, with the financial problems on a deeper manner, it is increasingly found in the resolution of financial economics principle on the issue of limitations, the most prominent is the issue of means. 融问题的核心是资产价格问题（尤其是股票价格），按照经济学最经典的供求原理来解释股票价格（尤其是股票价格波动）根本就是牛头不对马嘴，因为股价波动频繁，根本就不可能从市场上找到可靠的证据来证明供求关系对股价的影响。 As problems is the core issue of asset prices (especially stock prices), according to the most classic economics of supply and demand theory to explain the stock price (in particular, fluctuations in stock prices) is the fundamental牛头不对马嘴, stock price volatility Frequent, it is impossible from the market to find reliable evidence to prove that the relationship between supply and demand impact on stock prices. Later on, or mathematicians have proposed a more reasonable explanation: stock price volatility is a random walk process is unpredictable.

However, even if unpredictable, the people must be in accordance with the "principles" to determine the appropriate decision-making it ? At this point, the economics are even more powerless. However, an economics from the field but obviously deviant scholars to come forward to explain the principles of the decision-making, this person is the 1990 Nobel Economics Prize winner Makeweici. In 1952 he published papers demonstrated that the principle of people's investment decision is "expected earnings and the corresponding risks of trade-offs" and proposed a portfolio theory, this was later to invest in research to establish the basic framework. But first, economists do not authorized, such as the famous Makeweici Friedman even think that the theory is "Sibu Xiang", but he did not expect 000, this theory is almost the complete finance and economics A separate. According to Mr. Zhou Luohua said, is Makeweici assumption that the proceeds of balanced risks, makes a completely free themselves from finance to balance supply and demand based on the economics of the theoretical framework and the Zichengtiji.

But this is only "original" of finance, modern finance and still have a long way. In the early 1970s, sustaining the world economy and stable development of the foundation – the Bretton Woods system – the collapse of its direct consequence is that the uncertainty of economic activity increased significantly. General uncertainty for two, one is the "good", which is beneficial to the owners, while another is "bad", because the assets will suffer losses. For many people, despite the uncertainty is a double-edged sword, it is still possible negative impact of the loss of extreme panic, because they do not have the ability to prevent such losses, and therefore the need for new ways to help these people avoid risks. But when people found that, in use for centuries on the basis of categories of financial instruments can not play such a heavy responsibility, a new non-means can not solve the "escape" the purpose of uncertainty, so a new type of transaction means – financial derivative products will Has emerged.

Derivatives has been able to help people avoid risks to achieve the objective of a very important reason for this is that it has changed the traditional trading in time and space on the concept. In other words, his uncertainty of the future value of time the way to "transform" to the current contract transactions, to help people to the uncertainty of the transaction: the uncertainty of the resistance to buy in, no resistance The sold. Now people have seen the long-term contracts and futures contracts, and there are numerous, synchronized range of options, are a special feature of this type of derivative instruments.

Since the derivatives were created that moment, the finance earthshaking changes have taken place. On the one hand, finance the broader field of application, no exaggeration to say that there are uncertainties, there are finance. On environmental issues like carbon dioxide emissions, to resist natural disasters, weather index futures, are Finance, the most widely used live examples on the other hand, the emergence of derivative financial instruments not only from an endless stream, but also to address the academic problems Sector has long been the asset pricing issues opened up a brand new way, especially in 1973, Black and Schultz on the options pricing theory was published, asset pricing theory it opened a new chapter.

Asset pricing issue is the most modern finance one of the core issues, any transaction (including derivatives transactions) must be a reasonable price as the basis. From Baqieliye to Charles Road, from test to Makeweici Mills, James Tobin to Weilianxiapu from Samuelson and then to Fama, people with all kinds of ideas and methods attempt to open assets Prices of the mystery, but because of certain things while ignoring the effort. But with Black and Schultz pricing theory will be different, it is not only so that we can see that the traditional categories based tools (such as stocks, bonds, etc.) the value of content, but also so that we can (relatively) accurately grasp the derivative tools category The intrinsic value, so as to finance the extensive application of laying a foundation for practical.

Today, the Finance also began to penetrate into the thinking of the macroeconomic area, the formulation of macroeconomic policy plays an irreplaceable role. In fact, since the collapse of the Bretton Woods system, the traditional economic theory in macroeconomic issues have been resolved some of the力不从心. Unfortunately, all these finance the latest developments and achievements China has not caused enough attention to the mainstream scholars in this regard and the continuation of the traditional education system on the other hand we also exposed the traditional culture in the so-called "authoritative" thinking of the chronic disease.

chinainvestor:本版contents of the article was supplied by MarketWatch, does not constitute investment advice. Investors this operation, own risk.

Be Sociable, Share!

•