During the year prices are built at the top of City News _ _ _ Sina Sina Financial
Posted on Jun-03-2008· by china investor
â–¡ Su of futures Jiming
很快就出现了震è¡å›žè½æ€åŠ¿ã€‚ Luntong in the first quarter of the peak season demand stimulated strive upward, and in April again broken in May 2006 a record high, but quickly dropped a concussion situation. At present, Luntong map of the week indicates that the year is at the top of the structure is taking shape at the same time, fundamental aspects are key factors in the Piankong direction of change.
First of all, the U.S. dollar depreciated significantly in recent years is the rising global commodity important factor, but after this situation will be changed, because short-term bottom dollar there the possibility of repeated shocks will continue with strong year.
The U.S. trade deficit from the 2005 level of GDP7% drop to below 5 percent. Weak dollar for the export trade, the trade deficit is expected to decline further this year. In addition, while the second half of the U.S. presidential election, external expansion policy of contraction, may greatly improve the government's budget deficit. Now the Fed has hinted that a rate cut suspended in the face of high oil prices, interest rate increase may not rule out the possibility. These are beneficial to resolve the already Chaodie the dollar. Dollars from the technical indicators, weekly and monthly line MACD indicators have deviated from there, indicates that there will be many years down the situation changed.
Secondly, since 2003 Luntong rose, pushed up each wave, the "China factor" as an important aspect was said and institutions. However, the long period of high prices to the domestic industry structure has changed, and in turn improve the smelting capacity, and imports of scrap copper ore and hence can not count on China as in the past the bulk purchase of refined copper.
January to April this year, total imports of 506,700 tons of refined copper, down by 23 percent. As production increase, the growth rate of decline will be in China in international procurement of the norm. According to statistical data speculated that this year China's refined copper in the availability of 5.23 million tons, up 9.6 percent; consumption by an average annual growth rate of 11.1 percent, roughly estimated at 5.06 million tons level so there will be about 170,000 tons of surplus . Now when consumption of traditional peak season, prices have to be on; then, the attendant can boost consumer demand for low season? ?
This year, both international and domestic economic situation has adverse change, and can not have economic prosperity in 2006 when compared to the world. Therefore expect global demand to pull copper prices is impossible.
So, the task can only Elevated prices from the supply side to bear. At present the London Metal Exchange (LME) copper inventories of about 125,000 tons. As inventories have been low, so any supply disruptions or fine copper tense news can trigger a wave of rising prices. Chile was the case early strike.
Nevertheless, the global refined copper and refined copper production or a certain growth. According to ICSG latest report, the global refined copper market this year will be a surplus 85,000 tons, the 2009 surplus supply of 429,000 tons.
All in all, LME copper is being built at the top of the year, in spite of supply factors to stimulate prices rose, but the basic nature of a rebound, can not be sustained up to promote. On the contrary, as time goes by, to supply and demand structure in the downlink direction, and may have fallen sharply.
chinainvestor:本版contents of the article was supplied by MarketWatch, does not constitute investment advice. Investors this operation, own risk.
Tags:
Leave Your Comments