Find A shares worth depression – Information Center – Finance

Text / national securities research center

From the experience of the past 16 years, the fourth quarter of the A-share market as a whole showed equal or the Situation. Specifically, the majority> In the fourth quarter despite facing a "big 17" policy variables, Subordinated Debt and international variables derived from the mobility and monetary policy variables, but there are indications that, Subordinated Debt crisis> So from that perspective, the fourth quarter of this year, the third quarter continued the trend of larger possibilities.

Theme shares achievements of the potential valuation upgrade

With three quarters of the overall rise in blue chip stocks, valuation advantages are gradually disappearing, and the recent significant slowdown in the pace of the Fund issued a blue chip market will cause the rest of the shares subject is expected in the fourth quarter of the overall active. Therefore, the overall market valuation of the fourth quarter will increase from the main theme Unit's performance.

This year> Contrast May 29 and August 31 for two days of all A-shares in Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 Index and the dynamic earnings can be found> This shows that three quarters of this year> According to estimates, the fourth quarter of the active subjects shares will enhance the market valuation of more than 42 times. According to 0.4 yuan per share, the average market price will reach 16.8 yuan, the corresponding index axis point in the vicinity of 5,500 points. But taking into account more variables in the fourth quarter, and the Construction Bank, China Petroleum, China Railway Group, the blue chip index will gradually bring about the reunification of upgrading, the fourth quarter may be larger fluctuations of the market, the highest point and the lowest point is expected to reach 6,600 points and 4,400 points.

Earlier worry that the bubble point

As of August 31, 2007 to the first half performance as a base, the Shanghai and Shenzhen 300 stocks weighted dynamic – earnings ratio of 36.87 times, all of the A-share earnings ratio of 41.34 weighted dynamic times. Faced with such a high price-earnings ratio, many people are worried about the stock market bubble will burst at any time. That concern is natural, but is not necessary. Although compared to the global stock market, the A-share market it is difficult to find undervalued stocks, but considering the United States in 2000 and 1989 Japan's stock market bubble (Standard & Poor's 225 as of the earnings have been weighted component was more than 60 times), it is the A-share market bubble and not very much.

The blue chip market bubble that is a "relative" concept of the time that the A-share valuation already fully reflect the performance expected in 2007. But time is the best friend the next three months will be entered in 2008, the natural adjustment to the basis of valuation to 2008, according to a benchmark, when blue chip stocks valuation level "natural" will come down.

Pioneering stock ideas

Upgrading the A-share valuation of space mainly in five ways: 1. Because of the constant influx of capital, market valuation of the uplift absolute height. 998 points since the market has been> These include products prices, and consumer upgrades to the listed company profit growth; 3. In appreciation of the renminbi, the background to the rise of inflation, the value of the assets revaluation of the RMB is also easing pressure> According to statistics found that stocks with above plates or five more cross-channel, this plate or stocks upward, the greater the intensity. For example, real estate shares, non-ferrous metal stocks, coal stocks and cross-channel 1, 2, 3, 4 of the stocks with a cross, these plates and the stocks are likely to rise more.

Obviously, this means five to four quarter provided a stock ideas. A high valuation of stocks in general circumstances, which are upgrading plate or stocks valued space, we should look at the ways in which the five might be a change in the fourth quarter. The 1,2 channel in the market this year has been fully tapped. > And although the three channels was fully tap the market, but the appreciation of the renminbi, inflationary pressure still exists, therefore the value of the assets revaluation of the renminbi are mining potential.

"Hot" concept = "payment" investment

In the era of full circulation market value of the amplification effect will encourage major shareholders by injecting quality assets, the overall group will be listed, including securities of their own assets gradually so as to gain liquidity premium. Huge driven by the interests of large shareholders, including the issuance of listed companies into quality assets, or even the whole group is listed, has become an irresistible trend.

Asset injection, the overall listing, the acquisition of high-quality assets and the corresponding trailing price-earnings ratio of listed companies will be far below the current price-earnings ratio and the corresponding assets adds, will enhance the focus of the valuation of the company. More importantly, the overall quality listing or acquiring assets, the quality of assets of listed companies will be able to quickly upgrade, not> At present, SASAC is the central actively promote the overall level of listed companies listed. Shanghai, Tianjin, Chongqing, Beijing and other places in the SAC listed companies to consider the integration of local state-owned assets. It can be said that the policy barriers did not exist. In addition, ST faces delisting or wearing a hat companies is intensifying with the company entered the sincere negotiations, which have been in the first half of the company's interest in the relevant departments are also awaiting approval. Therefore, the injection of assets, the overall market will be the fourth quarter, the hottest concept.

In addition, this year China's social consumption continued to grow strongly, consumer spur economic future is the main tone. China will soon enter the first three peak consumption, and consumer industries will benefit from China's rapid economic growth brought about by the excess proceeds. In the consumer goods and consumer services and related business enterprises, a prominent characteristic is its profitability by the economic cycle fluctuations in the smaller, consumer stocks with defensive characteristics.

However, preliminary financial stocks, real estate stocks, resource shares (non-ferrous metals, coal, etc.) rings hide consumer's bright spot. In the context of inflation, price-sensitive products and increase potential in the industry to a greater share of the result of changes in investment income. While demand accelerated, slowed down the supply, demand and supply is to the benefit of changing the direction of prices, the valuation of these companies will have a new stimulus.

Look fourth quarter, assets into the overall market, absorbing the merger, industry consolidation, the concept of value of investment growth will become the main line. The consumer promotion, product prices rose, the value of the assets revaluation of the RMB will not be missed is the three investment themes.

"Capital Market"