home » China Futures » Jiaojia skyrocketing demand-driven high of 35 per cent of shocks will be the main theme of City News _ _ _ Sina Sina Financial

Jiaojia skyrocketing demand-driven high of 35 per cent of shocks will be the main theme of City News _ _ _ Sina Sina Financial

Posted on May-31-2008· by

â–¡ this reporter Li Mid-Autumn Festival Shanghai

国际研讨分论坛上，与会业内人士认为，天胶短期内仍将保持强势，但随着橡胶主产区天气转入正常，以及供求关系的逐步缓和，下半年胶价将保持“高位震荡”格局，但下滑空间有限。 "Growth in demand, supply has not so fast, which triggered this round of natural rubber rose," the fifth in yesterday's Shanghai Derivatives Market Forum – Natural International Conference at the Forum, participants industry believes that the natural rubber will remain the short term Strength, but with the rubber weather Zhuanruzhengchang the main producing areas, the supply-demand relationship and the gradual easing, the second half of Jiaojia will maintain "high shock" pattern, but fell space is limited.

Jiaojia demand-driven surge 35 percent

"Our products are in short supply, to May 27 so far this year, the tyre production growth rate will reach 30 percent," the production of automobile tires double the money Group Chairman Fan Xian said. There is no doubt that demand for a substantial increase in the current round of the fuse of plastic. Within a short span of one month, the Shanghai main natural rubber futures contract from 20,000 yuan / ton up to a maximum of 27,000 yuan / ton, or 35 percent.

Okazaki of Japan and overseas business, a long Inoue-chang pointed out that China's consumption of 2001 to 2007 consumption growth more than doubled, here the global consumption to 4.1 percent growth rate; At the same time, China accounted for the proportion of world consumption by 2001 15 per cent in the current rose to 26.4 percent. "I can think of natural rubber consumption growth, from 100 yen / kg up to 300 yen / kg one of the reasons," Inoue said a Chang.

Indonesian Rubber Association executive director Suharto predicted that the global natural rubber consumption in 2008 an increase of about 1.7 percent, 2009 growth rate of about 4.3% by 2010 the annual growth rate of 4.8%; corresponding is that the natural rubber output will increase significantly smaller In consumption and a declining trend. Suharto is expected, the 2008 world output growth of 3.5%, but in 2010, an increase will be reduced to 1.4%.

Will enter a "shock phase"

Experts point out that in recent years due to soaring rubber prices, and the shortage of supply and demand policy, resulting in many rubber producing countries to increase the area under cultivation, but production has remained relatively stagnant reaction will, therefore, natural rubber investors will be more complex, the overall performance will be as high Concussion main tone. "We forecast the next step will be to maintain high prices of the oscillation, to be followed by the tension between supply and demand situation will be eased, but a short time will maintain its strong trend," Inoue-chang a view.

Although shocks or high, but still limited room for downward adjustment. "As long as the rubber in Shanghai to lower inventory, I believe that the fundamentals of this market will become increasingly tight, it will continue to push prices up higher," public goods Aishi Ma Shou-Zhe Jiang fund managers that the June Tokyo Plastic to be the focus of attention around 340 yen, the Tokyo Commodity Exchange this month if prices Shoubu Zhu 340 yen, then glue the city might be down. Yesterday, the benchmark contract in Dong Jingjiao below 340 yen fluctuations. "The current oil price is relatively stable, I believe that rubber will also remain stable, and for this reason, I think rubber prices will not decline."

In response, the Thai Rubber Association, Sheng forest has similar views, he said, natural rubber first and second quarter of the price is relatively high, because the overall supply failed to keep pace with demand, but also stimulating natural rubber crude oil rose. In addition, the main producing areas of weather factors may affect the Jiaojia Jiaojia higher.

chinainvestor:本版contents of the article was supplied by MarketWatch, does not constitute investment advice. Investors this operation, own risk.

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