Mortgage mortgage fear "default" bank Provisional risk
Posted on Feb-29-2008· by china investor
Economists forecast: Beijing-Shanghai this year, overall prices or 5% ~ 5% of concussion yesterday, CITIC Ka Wah Bank, China's chief economist Qun Liao in Shanghai, said that this year the domestic real estate market will continue to cool down housing prices in Shanghai will be in the 5% to 5% concussion, and led to the investment-banking clients of mortgage loans issued a default phenomenon. However, he also pointed out that the phenomenon will not lead to fault the United States for sub-loan crisis situation arise.
Liao, said this year prices of real estate investors should be prepared to make further decline is expected to Shenzhen and Guangzhou, and the prices will be further reduced by 15 percent in Beijing and Shanghai and the overall prices are likely to -5 % ~ 5% between shocks, central region as a result of dwindling resources will remain strong, but other regions have downward pressure. As for the two cities and other cities, housing prices may continue to rise, but the rate of increase is the number of units.
The cooling real estate market continues to lead the reasons, from a macro level, Qun Liao believes that the current macro-control of the central great determination, and macro regulation and control investment in fixed assets is one of the main goals, which accounted for fixed investment in real estate development in a / 3, the growth momentum will continue to be strictly controlled. Based on the above analysis, real estate development and investment this year is expected to slow to a growth rate of below 20%.
At the same time, the investment mentality, due to changes in the external economic environment, the shadow of a global economic recession will also Chinese investors more cautious investment behavior to reduce blind investment impulse. Data show that the second half of 2007, Shenzhen, and Shanghai primary housing transactions compared with the first half were down 41% and 30%.
Qun Liao told reporters, with the adjustment of prices and the shrinking demand for real estate, the second purchase loans, as well as the implementation of restrictions, many investors, especially those with a number of housing speculators who will be facing huge financial pressure. "Mortgages New Deal" the implementation of the past to make their existing property as collateral to obtain financing has been this way can not be achieved, resulting in funds chain fracture.
"Under such circumstances, mortgage default will be the phenomenon might occur in the banking bad debts" Liao group believe that this will be China's banking system in a potential risk.
However, this may be the fault for the situation, such as the United States would not harm the loan crisis. Apart from the China Banking in asset securitization and other financial derivative market is not developed, Liao, said the United States and the loan-to-face is the object of more general customer base, and domestic banks may exist in the default mainly limited to investment clients , total personal loans as a percentage of smaller, the impact was also narrower. Invest in real estate phenomenon is most common in Shenzhen for example, according to statistics, the investment by bank credit, the number is just about in 8000.
Bank: Rates have the ability to avoid oscillation risk In fact, this reporter has learned, this year may be broken for the phenomenon, a number of Chinese-funded banks in Shanghai have also considered, but do not think that this is a big potential risk.
A joint-stock banks Shanghai branch of the retail business to the vice president's analysis, at present, banks are more than real estate loan customers to Shen, the requirements of the down payment ratio of at least 3% or even 5% of the maximum. According to the current Shanghai's real estate market, housing prices have fallen more than 30% of the possibility of a small, and the banks fully capable of circumventing the risk of price shocks arise.
At the same time, investment-oriented customers, because their houses are protected, even in real estate investment in default on bank real estate mortgage mandatory recovery, the likelihood of more. If the bank, the bank in recent years, the investment clients deal with the default, the banks have basically recovered through the auction of the property losses. (Chen Ke)
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