Natural rubber has become the top or the center line of City News _ _ _ Sina Sina Financial

After each from Shanghai's Wang Lu

Dieting Hujiao late last Friday, a week after the Open again fell, after the rapid午盘lower, the major 0809 contract fell 785 to 24,635 yuan, or 3.09 percent, from last Friday's turnover of 331,216 to 470,952 hand Hand, the positions are slightly more than 1,000 fell 6 to 91,802 hand in hand.

Crude oil market adjustments on the Jiaojia have a certain impact on the plastic for four consecutive trading day down, Hujiao also the third consecutive trading day down. June due to enter the supply could increase, greater pressure on the fundamentals, prices are likely to decline further shocks. The industry that impact on the cash supply is an important factor for investors Jiaojia.

Fall in oil prices drag Jiaojia

Last Tuesday, the dollar rebounded sharply row, NYMEX crude oil prices high pullback, down below 130 U.S. dollars, the minimum dropped to around 125 U.S. dollars. The industry that, as a pre-natural rubber prices pushed up the major driving forces, led to the pullback of crude oil in the current round of plastic down. 期货自345.8日圆连续下挫，周一继续小幅滑落，最低跌至313.5日圆；沪胶亦从27080元的高位开始下跌。 TOCOM futures fell from 345.8 yen a row, Monday to continue to decline slightly, falling as low as 313.5 yen; Hujiao also from a high of 27,080 yuan started to decline.

In addition to the impact of the dollar, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) last Thursday launched the investigation outflow of speculative funds has forced the oil and other commodity markets. Positions CFTC report showed that as at May 27 week, speculators held net long crude oil futures options positions from a week ago, the 50,060 to 25,867 hand in hand.

The industry, the general price of crude oil and natural rubber prices were positively related to the rise in oil prices will lead to cost increases Gecheng Jiao, pushed up natural rubber prices. If oil prices continue pullback, the Jiaojia will also be a certain impact.

Increasing pressure on the supply of seasonal

But the impact of oil market is only one hand. Shanghai analyst at Lehman said the medium-term, the rise in oil prices for natural rubber role in promoting a certain lag effect, plastic supply and demand of the main city and capital of double factors.

The broader Topix futures research and development, vice president of the Lin-hui pointed out that under normal circumstances, the domestic rubber in mid-April cut open one after another, but this year's bad weather led to low temperatures, the supply has been tight spot, which is led up on a Jiaojia The main reason. June will determine the availability of Jiaojia the latter part of the trend.

The industry is expected, 6 to July will usher in a comprehensive domestic Tapping period, then the supply will increase prices pose a greater pressure. The international market as a whole is also more optimistic forecasts. It is reported that in May Thailand, the main producing areas account for a cut rate of about 60 percent, the output is gradually increasing, there is no disastrous weather. Other origin, the Indonesian natural rubber production this year expected to reach 2.92 million tons, the Philippines rubber production materials increased 10 percent, output is expected to Southeast Asia should not be a substantial reduction in global supply adequate. These are likely to pose a medium-term negative Jiaojia.

Or have been formed at the top of the center line

Funds from the surface, the multi-profit-taking, the major high-altitude capital changing hands on a downward pressure on prices. Lin-hui, in the pre-up by nearly 6,000 yuan after the period of price adjustment requires the existence of the recent decline will continue.

Yesterday's prices, in 0809 reduced the contract positions at the same time, some funds have been far from agreement on the transfer, the 0811 contract positions from last Friday's 6,442 to 9,328 hand in hand, the contract dropped by 3.63 percent, to close at 24,175 Yuan. Lehman pointed out that, far from agreement on the contract premium in recent months, that market is not optimistic about long-term prices. This is mainly from the expected increase in supply.

The industry generally believe that Jiaojia depend on supply and demand in the latter part of the trend of change. If the smooth supply, prices or difficult recovery, but if the weather factors such as poor conditions continue to cause tight supply, prices are still rising space. However, Lehman pointed out that from the disk, the previous record high of the stage may become the center line at the top. In early June, will continue to shocks Jiaojia downlink, and, above all in the vicinity of 23,500 to 23,700 yuan testing support.

chinainvestor:本版contents of the article was supplied by MarketWatch, does not constitute investment advice. Investors this operation, own risk.

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