Negative copper prices gradually appear after the second quarter of the city will also downlink _ _ Sina Financial Highlights – Sina
Posted on Jun-03-2008· by china investor
â–¡ Shenyin Wanguo futures Li Chao
Deterioration of the global financial environment brought about by lower external demand, will enable China to investment and exports as the main engine of economic growth there slowed down, and lead to reduced non-ferrous metals consumption. The next period of time, supply, exchange rates, capital and related metal dynamic Tongshi on the bearish trend will gradually appear, the second quarter, after copper prices may also run down.
China's refined copper output expansion
China's copper concentrate imports in the past four months increased again. January to April this year, total imports of copper concentrate 1.8671 million tons, 07 and 06 over the same period, the figure was 1.511 million tons and 1.22 million tons. In addition, 1-April average monthly imports of 466,800 tons, respectively, over the same period last year and the year before to 377,800 tons and 305,000 tons. From this we can judge, 08 years is still a large number of domestic copper smelting capacity expansion.
Domestic production led to increased market supply increased, the number of imports will weaken, thereby weakening the city's dependence on Lundun Tong, Lundun Tong gained negative. This, in turn, makes clear domestic prices under pressure, and increase the downward pressure.
Jiang Cheng largest negative exchange rate factors
Although the depreciation of the dollar can improve the international competitiveness of U.S. products, and improve America's international balance of payments situation, but hope to reduce the dollar exchange rate to stimulate the economy are still risks. Depreciation of the dollar increase in the price of imported goods, pushed up the U.S. domestic inflation and economic growth stimulus is gradually diminishing. With the deepening of inflation on the economy by promoting the development will eventually lead to destruction.
Cut to a certain extent, can stimulate the economy, but low interest rates will again trigger inflation, which is the Fed in the current interest rate level is extremely cautious on one of the reasons why. Fed officials concerned by the recent speech to the market once again issued a rate cut cycle end of the argument. The author believes that in order to curb inflation in the latter part of the Fed interest rate increase may arise during the year. Once the U.S. interest rate increase, the market is likely that a new cycle of interest rate increases began. This is all the current dollar-denominated commodities, is a potentially huge negative.
Luntong obvious signs of the dispersal of funds
LME overall positions in a marked decline in the near future, this is particularly evident in the performance of Tongshi. Luntong positions from the current maximum of 280,000 to 240,000 hand in hand around, since April 16 after the end of the crowded positions, positions on a continuous decline, which is even more is doubtful, launched the current round of the fund market has been In a profit-taking in. The dollar's recent rebound, this could lead to profit-taking more frequent and rapid.
价横å‘æ•´ç†è¿‡ç¨‹ä¸ï¼Œå§‹ç»ˆä¼´éšç€æ™ºåˆ©ç½¢å·¥å› ç´ çš„å˜åœ¨ï¼Œä½†æœªå¯¹ä¼¦é“œå¸‚场产生任何影å“。 In addition, in the course of sideways, always accompanied by Chile strike the existence of factors, but did not have any impact on the market Luntong. And after the crash was the result of the dollar rebound. Numbness of the favorable market, but particularly in the sensitive bad that the rising prices have lost momentum, after copper prices also confirms the trend of the market extremely weak.
Or fell into a small metal sign
æ ¼ç›¸å¯¹å¹³ç¨³ï¼Œä¼¦æ•¦å¸‚åœºæ•´ä½“å¤„äºŽè°ƒæ•´æ€åŠ¿ï¼Œä½†é“…å’Œé•çš„大幅下挫应该引起足够关注。 Recent LME relatively stable, the London market as a whole going through an adjustment situation, but lead and nickel plummeted should attract enough attention. Basic metal from the past trend of highly relevant, if the trend clearly differentiated variety of metal, the metal as a whole will inevitably impact. In fact, the price of nickel in the May 07 mid-peaked shortly after the sharp plunge, is the crisis of the late dimensionless loan-to-metal lead to the collapse of the global preview.
Metal division and the trend appears to do with supply and demand. Although the rebound in copper stocks has not yet obvious, but in the current round of rising prices in most other species appear to increase inventory, including lead, zinc, aluminum is particularly evident. Based on the overall supply and demand in one of the non-ferrous metals theory, the global non-ferrous metals for the decline in overall consumer has to show concern, and copper prices also inevitably will be affected. With the consumption of the low season approaching, the global economic slowdown of the background, the author believes that the overall decline in non-ferrous metals consumption will gradually worry in the stock price and performance up.
chinainvestor:本版contents of the article was supplied by MarketWatch, does not constitute investment advice. Investors this operation, own risk.
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