Posts Tagged ‘reform’

monetary policy exit mechanism

Just 20 mins ago, I read a news subtitles under CCTV, which said england will think about monetary policy exit mechanism, it confused me, because I just read a report from reuters.com which said england add £ 50,000,000,000 to support “Quantitative easing program” .

Actually , I read a chinese report from cfi.net.cn which said The Central Bank Of China is talking about the monetary policy exit mechanism. The report said  somebody think there are a obvious sign of economy recover, and finical crisis nealy ended.

I very trust CCTV, but these information shown different way , it really confused me. But from my eyes, there are more important problem then about will england add or reduce money from the market. This problem is Efficiency Of Monetray Policy . I read many report said in england or USA, The bank do not hope give factory loan , do not hope give people loan to support house and custom , but these bank had accept many many money from country and people to pass “THEIR CRISIS” . But the result is these bank take money from people , but not return money to people , The multiplier effect of monetary stopped, at the same time, these bank distribution of high salary to their staff in the “PEOPLE’S CRISIS” . Now the controler just take people’s money to support self-service , but many many people lost job and living the street .  If these bank can not support the goal to help factories and woker, why we give money to them? From Greed to Fear, it just only 8 months. I believe the bank system should not only pay attention to owner’s profilt, but also the bank system should pay attention the “Social Responsibility”. If these bank can not support social responsibility, the center bank should build another way to support the facorties.

OK, In china, also I think the most important problem is employment ,we should let demographic dividend be a good thing, not a burden, many people born after 1949, from 40,000,000 to 1,300,000,000 , just a short time! The first baby borned in 1949 will retirement in this year , and in a short time, china will have many many old people…..

China can not only depanded export or depanded Houst to support today and feature, we must change our model of economy growth, we must let people can get house in 5 years , not 30 years, we must let young people become worker and customer, not unemployed youths . The money should been use build the jobs, not used to support house price.The focus of monetray policy should changed to increase the job , change the structure of economy, let university graduates become researcher and high-tech workers, not unemployed youths or nanny. The focus is not amount, The focus is efficiency! Do not waste valuable asset to build a “Asset bubbles” , we should let people easy to get house and easy to get job, let china become more civilization and more high-tech, realease the power of creative ability in china people, not help a littler people get more money, that is not the goal of reform.

7.1% — China’s gdp growth rate in the first half of the year, not bad,

Bureau of Statistics of China announced today that China gdp growth rate of 7.1% in the first half, industrial added value grew 7.0%, cpi dropped 1.1 percent year-on-year, total retail sales of social consumer goods grew 15%, these figures seem to let some people at ease, but as the official said, now china  without a solid economic recovery.

Ok,These number seems Not bad,right? But There are still have some problem,

1: Although many of the measures taken, FDI falls 17.9% in first half, the first half of exports dropped 21.8 percent year-on-year.

In last years, china begin a big assembly and export base ,  although somebody say china have a specify export model, it is different with JAPEN, but I had to say, export is the export, it is decided by the economy of the world ,speciafy USA, EURO….

2: The results are announced in the first half of 4000 billion government stimulus plan, 7.37 trillion of new loans made under the premise that such loose fiscal and monetary policies,in the long term, it is very difficult to continue.

And, I had to say, I believe limited gov and un-wisedom market. We can not always invest by GOV , I think people’s budge is more importand then GDP, When people feel safe and people have money which really controned by themself (not had to save money for house and education, health,even a small cemetery , these price rise up crazy), when company begin invest , we can see a more longer safe economy.

3: CPI does not include real estate, it is reported by many paper that in many cities ,in the three months real estate prices  increased by 30%, and we are still not out of economic recession, right?  Asset prices will go through a time transmitted to the other areas.
4: The employment situation is grim, the current statistics on the coverage of the unemployment rate is too small to address the employment pressure is the most critical for SMEs, the support is still far from enough.

I think we should Improve efficiency in the use of funds, ensure the money is go the right place, upgrading Industrial ,invest on new technology , buy

I think we need let the most of people begin more richer to support house, health ,education ,  we need more and more focus on  intensify the construction of the social security system,to promote a fair distribution . In china, Several thousand years  ,  we still said  let people have job and house , got a good education and health . That’s the goal of  the reform.