The fourth quarter investment in a multi-level capital market Pathfinder A shares feast hobbled – Information Center – Finance
Posted on Sep-30-2007· by china investor
/ Xiao Yu
Since 2006, the index rose by leaps and bounds, and the total market value of the crazy expansion, the A-share market to attract tens of millions of investors join them. This year's "5.30" before the market is not profitable almost rare, such institutions, retail so. "5.30", in particular the third quarter, the A-share market remained prosperity, stock prices, the total market value of a new record high, but the market situation has quietly undergone a change. Most retail index does not earn money, a market> With the development of a multi-level capital market further clear policy guidance, the fourth quarter of the A shares "Feast" seems unsustainable.
Regulatory policy head winds hit
A surge of investment in stocks will be a bubble, but the bubble extent? When will burst? They also do not have an accurate answer. To be sure, industry experts generally believe that China's current high valuation of the stock market seems to have become money-driven market, strong market trend is brewing liquidity risk. Coupled with our recent CPI (Consumer Price Index) rising economic overheating signs are fairly obvious. To deal with the stock market bubble, liquidity risk and control inflation, the government introduced a number of policies this year to control. For example, the central bank had increased for seven consecutive times deposit reserve rate, and raising interest rates five consecutive times; The Ministry of Finance granted special bonds issued 1.55 trillion, of which 200 billion to be issued to the public,.
The fourth quarter pre-monetary and fiscal policy effects will gradually appear. Macroeconomic senior analyst at Shenyin Wanguo Li Huiyong, while inflation is expected to gradually stabilize, residents savings sustained "move" to control the Situation, commercial banks may arise funds tensions will also ease;> He predicted that if the regulation does not significantly effect, the central bank will also conduct two small interest rate increases.
Deutsche Bank chief economist for Greater China, said Ma Jun, the fourth quarter of the deposit reserve ratio may rise further, the central bank will adopt the window guidance loan growth from the current 16.6% to 15% adjustment, and could strengthen the mortgage risk control. He predicted that the coming months, the insurance company investment income growth is likely to slow down, bank lending rate also decreased. In addition, UBS Asia Pacific chief economist Anderson said, regulators may also flow through the direct control of the capital market to accelerate issuing new shares and Super A-share market shares landing speed, increase transaction costs and other means of directly intervening in the stock market bubble.
Pressure> Multi-policy head winds expected to make the A-share crowd. The fourth quarter of the original A-share market liquidity is likely flood situation reversed. Apart from the effects of policies prior to the accumulation of possible future central bank interest rate increase, raising the deposit reserve ratio narrowed caliber lending policies, and the Ministry of Finance issued special treasury bonds further, will have the A-share market funds have an adverse impact> The stock through train, and the official launching of QDII business further will lead directly to the A-share market funds diversion. The main A-share market as a supporting force for institutional investors, such as brokerage firms, fund companies, allowed them to QDII business, their interests will be directly linked with the stock. A high valuation of stocks and the bright future of Hong Kong equities business will be expected to promote their preferred stock to institutional investors. The fourth quarter, the return of overseas blue chips and the accelerating pace of vetting new shares, the A shares will bring expansion of the funding pressure. In September this year, China Construction Bank handover A shares, to raise funds up to 58.05 billion yuan, issued its first purchase, the freezing of funds will reach 2.26 trillion yuan, topping the IPO highest record in history. However, this market share is> Apart from CCB, CNOOC and China Shenhua service will be> According to the forecast, the next few months, the market shares Ahmad A shares will reach 350 billion yuan expansion pressure. In addition, the stock index futures are ready, the company is also about to launch debt, "large and small non-" underweight in the fourth quarter of an usher in a new upsurge of these will be further funding of the A-share pressure, the accumulation of its mobility. Thus, in multiple policies and constantly improve the regulation of capital markets, the A shares are heading toward a rational and peaceful development stage. Therefore, investment in the fourth quarter of the A shares should not>
Tags:
Leave Your Comments